On December 31, 2024, the last contract that the Russian energy giant Gazprom had for the over-land supply of natural gas to Europe came to an end. This was the result of Ukraine refusing to renew the transit contract that had been in place since 2019 and contributed around $5bn to Gazprom’s annual revenue. Given that Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, this was not an unreasonable decision for the government in Kyiv to take. Nor was it unpredictable – already in the summer of 2023, Ukraine had